The likely end state is the web becomes a niche product used for things like 1) trying a service before you download the app, 2) consuming long tail content (e.g. link to a niche blog from Twitter or Facebook feed).- The Decline of the Mobile Web
This will hurt long-term innovation from a number of reasons:
1) Apps have a rich-get-richer dynamic that favors the status quo over new innovations. Popular apps get home screen placement, get used more, get ranked higher in app stores, make more money, can pay more for distribution, etc. The end state will probably be like cable TV Ė a few dominant channels/apps that sit on usersí home screens and everything else relegated to lower tiers or irrelevance.
2) Apps are heavily controlled by the dominant app stores owners, Apple and Google. Google and Apple control what apps are allowed to exist, how apps are built, what apps get promoted, and charge a 30% tax on revenues.
Whatever you now find weird, ugly, uncomfortable and nasty about a new medium will surely become its signature. CD distortion, the jitteriness of digital video, the crap sound of 8-bit - all of these will be cherished and emulated as soon as they can be avoided. Itís the sound of failure: so much modern art is the sound of things going out of control, of a medium pushing to its limits and breaking apart. The distorted guitar sound is the sound of something too loud for the medium supposed to carry it. The blues singer with the cracked voice is the sound of an emotional cry too powerful for the throat that releases it. The excitement of grainy film, of bleached-out black and white, is the excitement of witnessing events too momentous for the medium assigned to record them.- Brian Eno, A Year With Swollen Appendicies (via)
SF has 379k housing units, Case-Schiller index is up 60% in 5 yrs. Presuming $1M median sale, this is a $140B wealth increase to SF owners!— Michael Ducker (@miradu) November 2, 2015
We canít simulate the brain of C. Elegans, a very well studied roundworm (first animal to have its genome sequenced) in which every animal has exactly the same 302-neuron brain (out of 959 total cells) and we know the wiring diagram and we have tons of data on how the animal behaves, including how it behaves if you kill this neuron or that neuron. Pretty much whatever data you want, we can generate it. And yet we donít know how this brain works. Simply put, data does not equal understanding. You might see a talk in which someone argues for some theory for a subnetwork of 6 or 8 neurons in this animal. Our state of understanding is that bad.Dirty Rant About The Human Brain Project
The history of the Internet and mobile is that in many categories the winner takes most of the market ... Lately, weíve been wondering if there is an end to this pattern on the Internet and mobile. We think it is possible that an open data platform, in which users ultimately control their data and the networks they choose to participate in, could be the thing that undoes this pattern of winner takes most.Blog post on AVC: Winner Take Most
But Nature is full of self-modifying, interlocking systems, with interdependent variables you can't isolate. In these vast data spaces, directed iterative search performs better than any amount of data mining.Reminds me of something I've heard from multiple people working on data-driven stuff in consumer web stuff: "every variation performed worse than the baseline."
My contention is that many of you doing data analysis on the real world will run into similar obstacles, hopefully not at the same cost as pharmacology.
I still reckon a "Github for everyone else" a la how Slack is (at a very, very high level) "IRC for everyone else" would do gangbusters— Dan Hon is typing (@hondanhon) September 23, 2015
Just to put this in some rough perspective: Assuming I had a 1GB / month data plan, I could visit sites like The Verge about 3 times per day before I hit my cap. If I'm lucky, some or most of this will get cached between requests so it won't be quite that bad. In fact, another report tells me that a primed cache yields 8MB transferred - so maybe 4 visits per day.Relevant to my day job. Unfortunately.
In the late í90s I got a chance to tour the legendary Massachusetts computer company Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC, later bought by Compaq), and the difference in culture was remarkable. There were people at DEC who had been working on threading (the manner in which operating systems manage concurrent sets of linear processor instructions) for twenty years. Half the people had PhDs in their areas of specialty. Corners were never cut to release something earlier.
Ah, I thought. This is why Microsoft won.
Games, Video, History, Berlin, Activism, Friday, Clothes, Feminism, San Francisco, Podcasts, Quizzes, Sports, Statistics, Personal care, CrowdFlower, Travel, Minnesota, Transportation, Law, Geography, Bicycling, Politik, Life hacks, Toys, L.A., Boston, Food & Drink, Agriculture, Surfing, NYC
Personal finance, Web, Real Estate, Investing, Macroeconomics, Insurance, Shopping, Microfinance, Personal services, Non-profit, Taxes, Marketing and CRM, International Development, IP Law, Management consulting
We are live.